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| Ok, so that happened. |
Full disclosure - I didn’t vote for Donald Trump as
more than half of the nation also did not.
But I’m not mad about it. I try to look for the silver lining - because
there is no other option. Rest assured, a flip of the electoral college is unlikely and the controversial Mr. Trump will take office. Now that America
is getting a grip on the idea of President Trump I will take a guess at what
that will look like:
WHAT LIBERALS ALREADY LOST AND CONSERVATIVES GAINED
The path to citizenship for illegal immigrants is blown
up. That said, no politician wants to
deport English speaking second generation immigrants to a country the kid has
never seen. Trump promised to deport a
lot of illegals, but he’s more focused on money so he will probably look at the
cost. He also wants to freeze the hiring
of new Federal employees, so in the long run he will probably carve deportation
down to something manageable, perhaps a lot like it already is, but he will
take credit for the numbers of deportees regardless. New immigration will decrease simply because
Trump has shown an unfriendly tone toward immigrants. Sometimes words are all it takes!
All influence on Climate Change is out the window. End of paragraph.
The Supreme Court will be conservative. Anthony Scalia will be replaced with a similarly
conservative judge, which is a break-even.
The oldest current justice is Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 83, a liberal. The next oldest is Anthony Kennedy, 80, a centrist. The third oldest is
Stephen Breyer, 78, also liberal. Trump
could easily get a chance to replace at least one or more of them.
Trump promises to strip regulations, including EPA
regulations. This is easier said than
done, but the leadership can de-fund and ignore existing regulations for 4
years. Regulatory jobs will be lost. This effort alone might be a
boost for newer and smaller businesses, but larger businesses will be on guard
for regime change and are more likely to keep regulatory protocols in place
unless market conditions force cuts. The
environment will get a bit messy but not on a large scale.
Trump will cancel Obama’s executive orders, particularly
those pertaining to climate change, immigration, and Obamacare. Altogether, Obama signed 234 orders and all
of them can be cancelled.
There will be budget cuts on things liberals love the most, but not on the largest and most costly social programs. Many folks in rural Republican states are receiving entitlements right now.
Any hope of more rights for minorities or women or LGBTQ’s
is stalled, and with Mike Pence at the helm it appears LGBTQ’s will take the brunt unless congress fights it. It will take a lot of political capital to
strip current rights but Pence considers this to be the work of God, and he is
probably willing to push it. Trump,
however, is a business man. He will be
looking at the economy far more than social issues. It will be Pence and other cabinet members
who will steer this.
THINGS THAT MIGHT NOT CHANGE MUCH
It appears Obamacare is over, but if you listen carefully,
the root of the Affordable Care Act may remain.
Trump promises to “repeal and replace” and his solution still sounds
like insurance coverage. A market savvy
solution will probably be supported by mainstream Republicans in congress. No Republican wants to be blamed for killing healthcare to 22 million
voters or dependents under 26 years, many of whom are living in Republican
states. Obama will lose the brand, but a
vital piece of the work will stay in place and much of the tax will stay in place too.
There is little evidence Trump wants to attack social issues
unless he can make an argument that they hurt the economy or were
unconstitutional. Trump pledged at
certain times to protect LGBTQ folks and also to protect women’s rights. Remember, Trump attacked illegal
immigrants because they were illegal and supposedly “not the best” but
to my knowledge he never attacked minority U.S. citizens. Additionally, the Republican establishment was
working on a more inclusive agenda so they are not likely to pressure Trump
into tough social agendas either. Of course, the members of his cabinet may
change all of this.
Gun legislation will not change. Republicans promise to enforce existing
rules, but there’s no incentive to do that.
Trump can’t return coal jobs to America. That ship has sailed. Power plants have converted to natural gas,
which is clean, abundant, and cheap. The
only way Trump could honor this promise is to export coal to other countries. That won’t work
either because he promises to destroy foreign trade.
Trump can’t return steel jobs to America. Half of all steel jobs were lost to
technology and mechanization, and the other half of steel jobs were lost to
extremely cheap foreign labor, not corporate taxes and regulation as Trump
wants us to believe. Tariffs won’t help,
because we already charge massive tariffs on foreign steel. It’s an empty promise.
Trump might be able to return some auto manufacturing jobs
to America with the threat of huge tariffs on Mexican built cars, but he can’t
do it without making a deal with auto unions, which is the real reason
car manufacturing fled Michigan - not taxes.
Auto unions have been kicking auto manufacturers around for decades and
auto manufacturers are sick of it. This presents a dilemma for Trump because
many of his voters were disenfranchised union workers.
Trump can’t make Mexico pay for a wall. He will probably build a short wall in the
most troubled part of the border and get a miniscule trade credit from Mexico,
but he will fall well short of the promise and then exaggerate the greatness of
the work. Promise kept, sort of.
Trump did not say he would attack Roe v. Wade, nor is it
likely he could if prompted to do so. That
said, his cabinet members will invest their time on Roe v. Wade so this theory
may be tested. They will need a few
years to add conservative court members before a test of Roe v. Wade can be effective.
TRUMP WILL TAKE CREDIT FOR THIS
Right now, the economy is on a continuous but slow upward trend. The Obama years showed average
growth of around 2% which is near the preferred target of 3%. Jobs have been added at a
rate of just less than 1 million per year.
If Trump did practically nothing there is a good chance this trend will
continue. Of course, after his first
year in office, Trump can proudly say “I did that!” even though the economy in
the President’s first year is always the result of economic policy by the prior
administration.
If Trump is successful in killing trade deals the cost of
goods will go up. This will trigger
false inflation and “grow the economy” even faster than anticipated. But, increasing the cost of goods will not
create jobs - it simply decreases the value of the dollar. This is called “stagflation”. Trump will brag about triggering fantastic
growth and deny anything economists say until everyone realizes we’ve been screwed.
As a “law and order” candidate, Trump can pretend he oversaw
a decline in violent crime. He ran on
the statement that crime is up, and he will claim to bring it down. But in fact, crime is already down and will
probably continue moving down mostly due to abortion rights (see “Freakonomics” by
Dubner and Levitt), and an increase in surveillance. Criminals simply cannot get very far anymore
with cameras everywhere. Trump will take
credit for that.
It is very likely ISIS will be beaten down by a coalition
formed under the Obama administration.
When this happens Trump and friends will claim victory. Promise kept!
It seems possible Trump may negotiate support from Russia in exchange
for a comfortable piece of Syria and Iraq.
This will bother most Americans but Trump will sell it as the “great deal” that eliminated ISIS.
THINGS WE ALL LOST
Any accomplishment Obama made in narrowing the deficit will
be reversed. Trump will lower taxes and
add expenses, thus triggering massive deficit spending. Nearly every economist predicts debt will
rise by at least half $Trillion per year as a result of Trump policy.
Trump’s venomous dialogue has bred mutual disrespect all
over America. We are less UNITED under
Trump than we have ever been in my lifetime.
This is likely to get worse over the next four years unless Trump tempers
his language, and even corrects the language of others, but that is unlikely. His advisors may push him to offer assurances
and they will probably apologize on his behalf.
It’s wait and see on this.
So, that’s the silver lining. Unfortunately it is very tarnished and I would love to be wrong. After 4 years, Trump will have a hard time
justifying his failure to create manufacturing jobs; he will need to defend the
swelling debt, and he will need to justify rising racial tension. Disadvantaged Americans will be mad as hell
that their rights were stripped, working class whites will not see much change, the Supreme Court will be bolstered with new conservatives, Obamacare will be Trumpcare, and yet the rich will get even richer. This paves the way for a well spoken Democrat to swoop in and claim the office, because America Won't Be So Great Again. The only way Trump can win a second term is if
Democrats fail to nominate a like-able candidate AND Trump manages to convince
his voters he can still fix things with added time. It seems pretty unlikely that both of these
things will happen so I predict Trump will be a one term president.
That said, Trump has surprised the entire nation by winning
the Presidency against all odds in the first place. Perhaps he can surprise us with what he
accomplishes. I sincerely hope he does some good.
Tony F.
2016
