Climate Change be Dammed

Some time within the next 10 years a majority of the world population will come to the consensus that Global Climate Change is occurring, and is not preventable.  It is also likely that within the next 10 years enough data will be collected to create a more realistic model of how we will be affected which could in turn lead to policy change.  In the absence of such consensus, computer models, and policy, we have the opportunity to make some wild predictions as to what Global Climate Change may look like over the next 50 years.  Here is mine:

2010-2020  Due to steady funding and innovation in fossil fuels, hydrocarbons will continue to feed our energy needs.  Political and social pressures will influence a decline in energy and water consumption but population growth maintains a constant need for resources.  Alternative energy will continue to expand slightly with political boosts, but will have a continuing disadvantage due to the low cost of fossil fuels.  Weather will become more extreme.  Droughts will last for increasing periods followed by tragic floods.

2020-2030  On going patterns of long drought followed by flood will influence a growing need for water and storm management.  Extreme drying and subsequent flooding cause a noticeable loss of fish and wetland habitats.  The lack of water during the growing season stresses food production.  Grazing patterns of livestock become more tightly regulated in an effort to reduce over grazing and desertification.  Residential lawns and greenbelts are slowly replaced by rock beds, regional plants, and xeric landscapes.  Public sentiment shifts toward new dams and reservoirs to satisfy the need for water storage, flood prevention, food production, and hydro energy.

2040-2050  Dam building projects are underway.  In order to increase the payback on dam costs, tax incentives are removed from fossil fuel production to increase energy costs and the value of hydro energy.  For the first time, alternative energy becomes competitive.  Energy and water efficiency continue to grow in popularity due to rising water and energy costs.  Innovations in agriculture bring more efficient crops.  Building codes and master development plans encourage dense, multi-use communities where water use and energy efficiency are the focus.


2050-2060  Fossil fuel production falls behind alternative energy after a significant boost from hydro.  Despite the increased intensity of storms, multiple water reservoirs keep flood waters and snow melt at bay while rationing water flow at a more consistent rate for irrigation, hydro-electricity, and riparian habitat.

Do you notice a theme here?  Carbon emissions will not be the driving force of policy decisions over the next 50 years due to a lack of alignment of public opinion.  Water supply and management will instead be the force that shifts public sentiment.  Although dam building is not politically popular right now, we will eventually learn that our very survival depends on water storage.  We will realize that the long range answer to climate change is dams more so than any other solution.

During America's industrial expansion from 1920 to 1960, a great number of dams were built largely due to shortage of water near growing populations.  A great many of these dams enabled rivers to flow more consistently, water supplies to be more predictable, farm land to be more productive, and energy to be generated without carbon emissions.  It was a win in many ways, and we continue to flourish as a result.  In recent years, we have become so much more focused on minor environmental issues that we have completely reversed trend.  Despite this, when water needs affect us at home we will demand swift action.  There will be a day when the public cries for more dams and supply ducts to provide fresh water for human use instead of allowing it to flow out to sea.

Tony F.  2013