The Art of the DACA Car Deal

DEMS:  I am interested in that DACA
              car.  Is it still available?

REPS:   Oh sure, it’s a great car.  Lots of people like it.  The DACA car is good to go,  but it’s a package deal!

DEMS:  A package deal? 

REPS:   Sure, it’s a very popular car.  Great car!  It comes with a Chain Migration garage. 

DEMS:  What?  If I buy the DACA car I need to buy a Chain Migration garage too?

REPS:   Yes, like I said it’s a really great car.  The Chain Migration garage is next to the Lottery Migration home.  The home is part of the car deal too.  Great huh?

DEMS:  What?  Are you crazy?  Your ad only mentions the car.  What are you talking about?

REPS:   You want the car, right?

DEMS:  Sure, it’s a great car.  I want it.

REPS:   Oh.  I thought you were playing me for a minute.  The car is in the garage, which is next to the home, and the whole property is surrounded by a big, beautiful wall.  That’s the whole car package.  It's fantastic!  Do you want the package or not?

DEMS:  Are you joking?  I only wanted the car. 

REPS:   I AM SERIOUS.  Like I said, it’s an extremely popular car.  It’s a package deal!  Take it or leave it!

DEMS:  Well, yes, it’s an awesome car.  Just give me a second.  So, how much is this package deal? 

REPS:   It’s an incredible deal for only $70 Billion!  But hurry, we don't have a lot of time!

          DEMS:  OH MY GOD!  I only wanted to buy a car!  Why so much? 

          REPS:   Most of the cost is for the wall.  We haven’t built it yet, but the house and garage are all done.

          DEMS:  Ok.  That helps.  How much if we take out the wall?

          REPS:   The wall is in the f**king car deal!  It doesn't come out.  You aren't taking me seriously.  I don’t have time for your stupidity.

           DEMS:  Look, I contacted you about a car.  It's a great car and I really want it.  I’ve wanted a car like this for years.  I’m willing to talk about the garage and the house, but the wall is over the top.  I just can’t pay for that wall.  What can you do on that?

REPS:   So you’re saying you don’t want the car.  Sad!

DEMS:  I just said I really want the car!  What is wrong with you?  How about I just pay for part of the wall?

REPS:   Part of the wall? THAT'S AN INSULT! It's' a glorious wall! You either want the car or you don’t. I told you it’s a package car deal. I've been straight with you all along.  I don't have time for your insults.  Are we done here?

DEMS:  I guess I can’t take the car.  You're asking way too much for it.  I never wanted a stupid wall.

NEXT DAY…….

DEMS:  You just posted that the car is no longer available.  Did you sell it to someone else?

REPS:    No, I crushed it.

DEMS:  Crushed it?  What the Hell?  Why?

              REPS:   You didn’t want it.  Huge 

                             disappointment.  

              DEMS:  Yes I did!  I said I wanted it!  I said 

                            it repeatedly!  You really destroyed it?

              REPS:    NO!  You destroyed the DACA car.

              DEMS:  What?  Are you crazy?  You just said 

                             you crushed it.

              REPS:   Everybody liked that car.  I can’t 

                            believe you destroyed it.

              DEMS:  But you said you crushed it!

              REPS:   The car is gone because YOU   

                NEVER WANTED IT!  ITS YOUR FAULT!

                     THE END

Tony F.
2018

We Are All Mostly Wrong

This is a follow up of last week’s post titled “This Argument”.  After a healthy debate with my friends and some additional reading I’ve come to the conclusion the folks on both sides of this gun debate are mostly wrong.  Let me explain:

Last week I said “I don’t waste my money on things I don’t need”, and I was mostly wrong.  In truth, I really don’t need most of the things I have.  I choose them.  The original meme was also mostly wrong, “Give me one reason you need an AR-15”.  Need is not a prerequisite to ownership of anything and my friends made that clear.

Anyone who thinks guns can or should be banned in this country is mostly wrong.  Please look up the disaster called “Prohibition”.  The 18^th Amendment was passed in 1920 to prohibit the use of alcohol.  For the next 13 years the illegal production and consumption of alcohol spawned an industry so large the U.S. government had to give up the fight.  In 1933 the 21^st amendment reversed   Alcohol won.  There are 350 million guns circulating in the U.S. – more than one gun for each person.  We cannot change the hearts of people simply by changing the rules.  There will be bloodshed.  Let’s consider what it would take to change the 2^nd Amendment.  An Amendment to the Constitution requires the vote of 67% of Congress, followed by ratification by 75% of the States.  If you think we can get 75% state approval of a gun ban you are mostly wrong.

The 2^nd Amendment gives all Americans the right to bear arms on the principal that a well armed public is capable of policing a tyrannical government, but if you really think we can police the U.S. government you are mostly wrong.  After World War II the U.S. military complex became so powerful that a well armed public stands no chance in strategic battle.  Our government has tools far greater than anything we could own.  A well armed public will not be much more than a nuisance against our military.  In a strategic sense we would lose the war in short order. 

Then again, if you think the prior paragraph destroys the 2^nd Amendment you’re mostly wrong.  American forces have a long history of defeating countries in war but not gaining control of the people.  The North Koreans, Vietnamese, Iraqis, and Afghans all lost wars against the U.S. but the people never surrendered.  They resisted for years.  They made their own bombs, they formed human shields, they dug tunnels, and they hid in caves.  They did not back down, so America backed out.  You cannot change the hearts of people.  Without surrender, 350 million guns will be impossible to beat.  In the end we would not police our government.  We would lay the country to ruins - a Pyrrhic victory which might be enough to deter a tyrannical government.

Gun owners who talk about the “slippery slope” of gun control are mostly wrong.  Assault rifles were actually banned from 1994 to 2004.  Ironically, this is when the attack on Columbine High School occurred.  If there was a “slippery slope” gun bans should have gotten worse at that time.  The opposite happened.  Assault rifles are no longer banned.  No slippery slope. 

If you think assault rifles are the problem you are mostly wrong.  Assault rifles have been featured in recent mass shootings but there are many, many weapons that are capable of carrying out similar degrees of destruction and death.  In fact, the worst case of U.S. school terrorism was carried out in 1927 with no gun at all.  One man killed 44 people - mostly children - with a home made bomb.  

The problem with America these days is our desire to exaggerate things we are mostly wrong about instead of trying to find sensible solutions to our issues.  Why are we not discussing the fact that the background check system is mismanaged?  Why are we not discussing the fact that the Parkland shooter was reported to the police and FBI before he attacked - he even posted a public threat against the school - yet he was still free to carry out the attack?  Why are we not discussing the fact that current “controls” are woefully inadequate due to under funding, lack of enforcement, and complete incompetence?  Why are we not talking about age restrictions?  Why are we not talking about ways to report and investigate suspicious behavior?  Why are we not talking about universal background checks and banning of bump stocks?  Why are we not talking about sensible limits on ammunition?  Instead we are only talking about banning all guns or not banning all guns.  We are wasting each other’s time and we are mostly wrong.

If you think the kids from Parkland, Florida are marching for a gun ban you are mostly wrong.  The originators of the march only made 3 clear and simple requests:

1.        Pass a law to ban the assault weapons frequently used to carry out mass shootings

2.        Stop the sale of high-capacity magazines, restricting the amount of ammunition

3.        Close loopholes in America's background checks andimplement laws that require background checks on every gun purchase, includingthose that occur online or at gun shows

You might think these requests are mostly wrong, but I am certain that doing nothing about mass shootings is completely wrong.  Write your congressperson about your idea to protect our kids while still protecting the 2^nd Amendment.  This is how we police our government.  Anything else would be mostly wrong.

Tony F.

2018

This Argument

I have seen several FB posts like this in the last two days.  One other response I've seen is, “Give me one reason why I don’t need one.”  Ok, fair enough.  I suppose it is none of my business what you legally own.  I also suppose it would be unreasonable for me to decide what you need or do not need.  I can only speak for myself.  Let me tell you why I don’t need an AR-15 or a handgun or any other weapon for that matter.

I don’t fear death.

I don’t need power.

I don’t have enemies. 

I don’t want superiority.

I don’t need to impress anyone.

I don’t have anything to prove.

I don’t worry about being robbed.

I don’t hunt, and I don’t judge hunters.

I don’t need tools to increase my confidence.

I don’t fear the police or the U.S. government. 

I don’t waste my money on things I don’t need.

I don’t have any desire to kill anything or anyone.

I don’t need to protect my things because my things are replaceable.

I don’t flaunt my things to the point that would lead someone invade my home.

I don’t exaggerate the probability of being attacked.  It’s a one in 20,000 chance and I don’t have that many days left to live.  I'm not worth attacking anyway.

I don’t think it is my place to defend the U.S. against a foreign invader.  We have the best fighting force in the world.  If invaders make it to my house they’ve lost the war and I'm not better than them.

I don’t see any phrase in the New Testament of the Bible that suggests we should ever bear arms against anyone.  “Wisdom is better than weapons of war”  Ecclesiastes 9:18  “for all who draw the sword will die by the sword.”  Matthew 26:52

These are my reasons for not needing an AR-15.  So, although it is not any of my business what you own, I have the right to the opinion that you are probably a fool for owning an AR-15.  You probably own it because you fear your government, or you think you will be attacked, or because you waste your money on things you don't need, or you want to impress your friends, or your gun makes you feel stronger, or you like the idea of killing something or someone, or you indeed have enemies.  I am entitled to the opinion that  your gun ownership is probably motivated by fear or weakness or low self esteem or paranoia or even evil.  I'm guessing you are not motivated by self confidence, logic, goodness, or religion.  I'm guessing you own an AR-15 for all the wrong reasons.  Why else would you have enemies?  Why else would you fear attack?  Why else would you need an AR-15?  Why else would you refuse to answer the question?

So, does anyone have the guts to answer the original request?  Give me one good reason you need an AR-15.  So far, I've only seen non-answers.  Seriously, think about it.  Why?

Tony F.

2018

Let's Talk About Those Pussyhats

 A few of my conservative friends posted their misgivings on social media about the wearing of “pussyhats” during the Women’s March on Washington last weekend.  Some of the comments were, “it is vulgar”, “it is demeaning to women”, “a v-hat marginalizes and degrades their message”, “it crossed a moral line”, and "what if men wore phallic symbols?".  Ok snowflakes, here’s the deal:


First of all, the pink hats are not vag-hats or V-hats.  They are kitten ear hats!  And they are pink because pink is a girl color!  That these feminine-hued kitten hats are being viewed as a vag-hat says much more about the people seeing them that way than those who created them.  The organizer of the pussyhat movement states quite clearly the intent of the hat on her website www.pussyhatproject.com.  She admits to the double entendre of the pussyhat as a play on words to dig at Trump’s womanizing statements, but she never intended to depict anything more.  And if the hat were intended to symbolize the vagina - big deal!  It is argued that the U.S. Capitol dome is a phallic symbol, along with the Washington Memorial, the Empire State Building, and many other towers throughout America. They are offensive only to those who visualize it that way, and most of us do not.

Any Trump supporter who condemns the wearing of a home-made garment as a symbol of solidarity and peaceful protest by saying it is “offensive” has now jumped into the realm of hypocritical political correctness.  Voters made vulgarity OK when they selected Trump - the most vulgar buffoon elected to office in my lifetime.  Now they are offended by so called “liberal snowflakes” in pink pussyhats.  The tables have turned.  Are you offended by the 1967 hit song “What’s new Pussycat” or the early 1970’s cartoon “Josie and the Pussycats” or the 2011 animated film “Puss in Boots”?  Perhaps not, because you know these titles are not referring to a female body part, but I can assure you Trump was referring to a female body part when he said “I can grab her by the pussy”.  This was excusable to 60 million Americans, because it was only locker room talk and he’s a successful billionaire.  But a pink pussyhat somehow “crosses the line of morality".

Does the color pink offend you?  It is the color of the so-called offensive body part.  If that is the case, you should be disgusted by the Susan G. Komen Race for the Cure which is bathed in pink as a symbol of support for women who have been victimized by breast cancer.  I suppose voters excuse this because these women are victims of a terrible disease, and evidently grabbing a pussy is a victim-less crime.

If you wonder why many thousands of women protested on the first day of the presidency, you might consider that they are deeply offended by the fact that our president is an indecent pig who clearly demonstrated disrespect for women and still GOT ELECTED!  Women came out in droves to say THIS IS NOT OK!  I am amazed at the ability of these Americans to rise, organize, mobilize, symbolize, vocalize, and chastise in numbers far exceeding the President's inauguration.

You may wonder if the whole event will truly make a difference, but I believe it already has.  Trump may be in denial, but his cabinet members, staff members, and fellow Republicans can see they are not very popular right now, and that’s a start.  We all must refuse to excuse any man who takes a pussy in one hand, only because he has a bundle of money in the other hand.

Tony F. with edits by Angela JMF.
2017

This Meme

A Facebook friend recently posted this meme in an effort to highlight the failures of President Obama.  This is unfortunate because this graphic is full of misinformation.  Let’s check it out:

Eight years of war – False.  Obama ended the wars by 2014.  American involvement in the Middle East is now limited to advisory positions and training.  In total, fewer than 100 American troops have died in the Middle East over the last 2 years.  In all, Obama oversaw 6 years of war and was criticized by most conservatives for ending the wars too early.

Lowest economic growth in American history – Misleading.  The lowest economic trend in American history was the Great Depression which lasted a decade. It is true Obama oversaw the flattest and longest recovery in post-war history, but most economists do not see this as a bad thing.  High economic growth exceeding 3% is considered too fast.  In this case, the Federal Reserve will typically enact policies to slow the pace and reduce the threat of a crash.  The Federal Reserve recently warned that if Donald Trump were to apply aggressive growth efforts the Fed may act against him to keep growth from reaching a dangerous pace.  Obama’s flat recovery averaging 1.5% over his term has resulted in the longest period of constant expansion and increased employment.  The Federal Reserve recently suggested computer technology and other global factors are contributing to a flatter new economy.

Record number of mass shootings – True for every President.  This number has been growing every decade throughout American history.  There is no linkage between a growing number of mass shootings through every decade of history, and who is President.

Record number of terrorist attacks in America – True for every President.  This is closely related to the mass shootings claim above, and includes many of the same data points.  Again, there is no linkage between this growing concern and who is President.  In fact, during most of Obama’s term the U.S. government was using enhanced anti-terrorist tactics enacted by the Patriot Act in 2001.  This statistic proves the Patriot Act did not work although it is still in effect.

Record number of people on food stamps – True, but only due to the recession.  Keep in mind, population is constantly growing, so any claim of “record number of people” is a function of larger population.  The true cost of welfare must be compared to GDP.  Welfare expenses have now leveled off to a 50-year average.

Record high health insurance costs – True for every President since 1970.  The rate of increase actually leveled off since Obamacare was passed.  The 50 year average increase in medical spending has was about 8% per year, but after Obamacare the rate of increase dropped down to around 4%.

Record high national debt – True for every President since 1950.  Inflation will always produce record highs.  When measured in relation to GDP, the highest debt actually occurred at the end of WWII and has not returned to that level.

Worst rioting since 1967 – False.  The list of civil unrest incidents from 1968 to 1975 exceeds the number during Obama's term.  Many riots during Obama’s term were racially motivated due to the perception of unfair treatment of African Americans by the police.  When the first black president was elected, many hoped race was no longer a factor.  This hope caused a great deal of disappointment as minorities reckoned with the idea that racism still exists.  Rioting occurred due to unmet expectations.

Highest poverty level in American history – False.  Even during the Great Recession poverty levels never reached numbers prior to 1960.

And this is what liberals call success – False.  Since the prior statements are either false (3 times), misleading (1), or true for every other modern President (4 times), these statements have little to do with the President’s performance, and nothing to do with anyone’s opinion of success.  What should Americans call success?  I will give you a few ideas:

Highest level of renewable energy production in history
Highest level of energy independence since 1970
Highest number of immigrant deportations in U.S. history
Highest number of new jobs in U.S. history
Highest percentage of health insured citizens in U.S. history
Equal marriage rights for LGBT’s
Stock market performance better than any Republican president in U.S. history (but approximately equal to Ronald Reagan)
Killing of Osama Bin Laden, and covert drone killings of 2,500 additional terrorists

This is success.  Any questions?

Tony F.
2017

Make it Happy

Upbeat Cubans having a jam.

A friend of mine recently traveled to Cuba with a few friends and business partners.  Once there, he made two observations that forced him to ask an interesting question.  The first observation was that the country had fallen to ruins under Communist rule.  Since the political climate of Cuba gave little opportunity or motivation for self improvement, each citizen simply settled for what they thought they could get.  Without the potential for a richer life, the quality of Cuban life and infrastructure slowly declined until everyone was living just slightly above poverty level.  But he also observed that Cubans seemed relatively happy.  This led him to a question – Do we really know what makes us happy?

Be that person.

In the book “Stumbling on Happiness”, Daniel Gilbert makes a strong argument that we really don’t have the ability to predict what will make us happy.  Most Americans tend to think the next “thing” should make us happy.  We tend to strive for a bigger house, a new car, a new pair of shoes, or a new item of clothing.  In the end, we find that all of these things don’t result in a whole lot of pleasure.  Even worse, we are also lousy at recognizing events that should make us happy.  We often wish for peace in times of drama, but we then perceive peaceful events as boring and create drama to combat boredom.

Often, we don’t allow ourselves to be happy because we want more of everything than we had yesterday.  Numerous studies show the upper class is only slightly happier (because they have less to worry about) but once they reach a certain threshold of financial security, strife and dissatisfaction still prevails.  The old adage holds true – money does not buy happiness – but the right amount of money may reduce stress.  The trouble is, we don’t recognize the right amount of money when we have it.

In the book “The Top 5 Regrets of the Dying”, Bronnie Ware records her findings from several years of working in palliative care, talking to hundreds of people in the last weeks of their life.  She discovers the top 5 regrets of these dying folks as follows: 1. I wish I’d had the courage to live life true to myself, not the life others expected of me.  2.  I wish I didn’t work so hard. 3. I wish I’d had the courage to express my feelings. 4. I wish I had stayed in touch with my friends. 5. I wish that I had let myself be happier.  I find item 5 most interesting – sometimes we simply need to give ourselves permission to BE happy.  So, instead of making choices for things that should MAKE us happy, perhaps we can just CHOOSE happiness.

Choose happiness.

In his popular TED talk, “Paradox of Choice”, psychologist Barry Schwartz concludes we have too many choices in American life, which results in expectations that a perfect choice exists, which nearly always results in disappointment.  He summarizes his philosophy by saying, “The secret to happiness is low expectations” which evidently holds true in the Cuban example.  To take this further, I would argue that some choices are not available to all of us, but we see that other people have more choices than we have and become unhappy with the comparison.  Still, unhappiness occurs because we think better choices probably exist to MAKE us happy.

Why am I writing this?  It’s not because I believe the Cuban example is the best way to run a country.  Instead, I’m arguing Americans should enjoy our good lives and give ourselves permission to BE happy.  Be yourself, and say what you think and feel.  Work hard enough to pay the bills, and then take the time to do something you enjoy.  Don’t bother comparing your material things to the things of others because those with more and better things are probably not much happier.  Love your family and friends.  Most of all, find reasons to be happy.  I hope you take it literally when I say, “Have a happy New Year”.

Tony F.  2017

OK, SO THAT HAPPENED

Ok, so that happened.

Full disclosure - I didn’t vote for Donald Trump as more than half of the nation also did not.  But I’m not mad about it. I try to look for the silver lining - because there is no other option.  Rest assured, a flip of the electoral college is unlikely and the controversial Mr. Trump will take office.  Now that America is getting a grip on the idea of President Trump I will take a guess at what that will look like: 

WHAT LIBERALS ALREADY LOST AND CONSERVATIVES GAINED

The path to citizenship for illegal immigrants is blown up.  That said, no politician wants to deport English speaking second generation immigrants to a country the kid has never seen.  Trump promised to deport a lot of illegals, but he’s more focused on money so he will probably look at the cost.  He also wants to freeze the hiring of new Federal employees, so in the long run he will probably carve deportation down to something manageable, perhaps a lot like it already is, but he will take credit for the numbers of deportees regardless.  New immigration will decrease simply because Trump has shown an unfriendly tone toward immigrants.  Sometimes words are all it takes!

All influence on Climate Change is out the window.  End of paragraph.

The Supreme Court will be conservative.  Anthony Scalia will be replaced with a similarly conservative judge, which is a break-even.  The oldest current justice is Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 83, a liberal.  The next oldest is Anthony Kennedy, 80, a centrist.  The third oldest is Stephen Breyer, 78, also liberal.  Trump could easily get a chance to replace at least one or more of them.

Trump promises to strip regulations, including EPA regulations.  This is easier said than done, but the leadership can de-fund and ignore existing regulations for 4 years.  Regulatory jobs will be lost.  This effort alone might be a boost for newer and smaller businesses, but larger businesses will be on guard for regime change and are more likely to keep regulatory protocols in place unless market conditions force cuts.  The environment will get a bit messy but not on a large scale.

Trump will cancel Obama’s executive orders, particularly those pertaining to climate change, immigration, and Obamacare.   Altogether, Obama signed 234 orders and all of them can be cancelled.

There will be budget cuts on things liberals love the most, but not on the largest and most costly social programs.  Many folks in rural Republican states are receiving entitlements right now.

Any hope of more rights for minorities or women or LGBTQ’s is stalled, and with Mike Pence at the helm it appears LGBTQ’s will take the brunt unless congress fights it.  It will take a lot of political capital to strip current rights but Pence considers this to be the work of God, and he is probably willing to push it.  Trump, however, is a business man.  He will be looking at the economy far more than social issues.  It will be Pence and other cabinet members who will steer this. 

THINGS THAT MIGHT NOT CHANGE MUCH

It appears Obamacare is over, but if you listen carefully, the root of the Affordable Care Act may remain.  Trump promises to “repeal and replace” and his solution still sounds like insurance coverage. A market savvy solution will probably be supported by mainstream Republicans in congress.  No Republican wants to be blamed for killing healthcare to 22 million voters or dependents under 26 years, many of whom are living in Republican states.  Obama will lose the brand, but a vital piece of the work will stay in place and much of the tax will stay in place too.

There is little evidence Trump wants to attack social issues unless he can make an argument that they hurt the economy or were unconstitutional.   Trump pledged at certain times to protect LGBTQ folks and also to protect women’s rights.  Remember, Trump attacked illegal immigrants because they were illegal and supposedly “not the best” but to my knowledge he never attacked minority U.S. citizens.  Additionally, the Republican establishment was working on a more inclusive agenda so they are not likely to pressure Trump into tough social agendas either.  Of course, the members of his cabinet may change all of this.

Gun legislation will not change.  Republicans promise to enforce existing rules, but there’s no incentive to do that.

Trump can’t return coal jobs to America.  That ship has sailed.  Power plants have converted to natural gas, which is clean, abundant, and cheap.  The only way Trump could honor this promise is to export coal to other countries.  That won’t work either because he promises to destroy foreign trade.

Trump can’t return steel jobs to America.  Half of all steel jobs were lost to technology and mechanization, and the other half of steel jobs were lost to extremely cheap foreign labor, not corporate taxes and regulation as Trump wants us to believe.  Tariffs won’t help, because we already charge massive tariffs on foreign steel.  It’s an empty promise.

Trump might be able to return some auto manufacturing jobs to America with the threat of huge tariffs on Mexican built cars, but he can’t do it without making a deal with auto unions, which is the real reason car manufacturing fled Michigan - not taxes.  Auto unions have been kicking auto manufacturers around for decades and auto manufacturers are sick of it.  This presents a dilemma for Trump because many of his voters were disenfranchised union workers. 

Trump can’t make Mexico pay for a wall.  He will probably build a short wall in the most troubled part of the border and get a miniscule trade credit from Mexico, but he will fall well short of the promise and then exaggerate the greatness of the work.  Promise kept, sort of.

Trump did not say he would attack Roe v. Wade, nor is it likely he could if prompted to do so.  That said, his cabinet members will invest their time on Roe v. Wade so this theory may be tested.  They will need a few years to add conservative court members before a test of Roe v. Wade can be effective.

TRUMP WILL TAKE CREDIT FOR THIS

Right now, the economy is on a continuous but slow upward trend.  The Obama years showed average growth of around 2% which is near the preferred target of 3%.  Jobs have been added at a rate of just less than 1 million per year.  If Trump did practically nothing there is a good chance this trend will continue.  Of course, after his first year in office, Trump can proudly say “I did that!” even though the economy in the President’s first year is always the result of economic policy by the prior administration.

If Trump is successful in killing trade deals the cost of goods will go up.  This will trigger false inflation and “grow the economy” even faster than anticipated.  But, increasing the cost of goods will not create jobs - it simply decreases the value of the dollar.  This is called “stagflation”.  Trump will brag about triggering fantastic growth and deny anything economists say until everyone realizes we’ve been screwed.

As a “law and order” candidate, Trump can pretend he oversaw a decline in violent crime.  He ran on the statement that crime is up, and he will claim to bring it down.  But in fact, crime is already down and will probably continue moving down mostly due to abortion rights (see “Freakonomics” by Dubner and Levitt), and an increase in surveillance.  Criminals simply cannot get very far anymore with cameras everywhere.  Trump will take credit for that.

It is very likely ISIS will be beaten down by a coalition formed under the Obama administration.  When this happens Trump and friends will claim victory.  Promise kept!  It seems possible Trump may negotiate support from Russia in exchange for a comfortable piece of Syria and Iraq.  This will bother most Americans but Trump will sell it as the “great deal” that eliminated ISIS.

THINGS WE ALL LOST

Any accomplishment Obama made in narrowing the deficit will be reversed.  Trump will lower taxes and add expenses, thus triggering massive deficit spending.  Nearly every economist predicts debt will rise by at least half $Trillion per year as a result of Trump policy.

Trump’s venomous dialogue has bred mutual disrespect all over America.  We are less UNITED under Trump than we have ever been in my lifetime.  This is likely to get worse over the next four years unless Trump tempers his language, and even corrects the language of others, but that is unlikely.  His advisors may push him to offer assurances and they will probably apologize on his behalf.  It’s wait and see on this.

So, that’s the silver lining.  Unfortunately it is very tarnished and I would love to be wrong.  After 4 years, Trump will have a hard time justifying his failure to create manufacturing jobs; he will need to defend the swelling debt, and he will need to justify rising racial tension.  Disadvantaged Americans will be mad as hell that their rights were stripped, working class whites will not see much change, the Supreme Court will be bolstered with new conservatives, Obamacare will be Trumpcare, and yet the rich will get even richer. This paves the way for a well spoken Democrat to swoop in and claim the office, because America Won't Be So Great Again.  The only way Trump can win a second term is if Democrats fail to nominate a like-able candidate AND Trump manages to convince his voters he can still fix things with added time.  It seems pretty unlikely that both of these things will happen so I predict Trump will be a one term president.  

That said, Trump has surprised the entire nation by winning the Presidency against all odds in the first place.  Perhaps he can surprise us with what he accomplishes.  I sincerely hope he does some good.

Tony F.

2016